Institute For The Future

IFTF SCENARIO BUILDING

Upskill your foresight with scenario thinking

In times of high uncertainty, one essential foresight method stands out—alternative scenarios.

This rich scenario framework helps sort through the chaos and complexity of world-changing moments like the current COVID-19 pandemic. It gives us the thinking tools to organize overwhelming events, signals, and memes into four clear paths to the future—and to convert those paths to action.

The building blocks

IFTF Foresight Essentials will offer its first in-depth training on scenario building in 2021. We will introduce the mythic underpinnings of the alternative futures method as practiced at IFTF. Then we will dive into the basic building blocks of scenario-based storytelling—from people and places, time horizons, and forces in play, to the values and leverage points that set the course for each scenario.

Over three sessions, we’ll use the current pandemic moment and all the system frailties it has revealed to build four visions of the future: growth, constraint, collapse, and transformation. We’ll start from IFTF’s own baseline post-pandemic scenarios and work in teams to create authentic visions for our diverse stakeholders. Then we’ll convert those visions to strategic action plans.

Secrets of the craft

If you want to add scenario thinking to your toolbox for foresight, design, strategic planning, or innovation leadership, this course will walk you through the process of crafting visionary scenarios—one of the most rewarding, impactful, and difficult activities in foresight practice. IFTF’s own senior researchers, including Executive Director Marina Gorbis and Distinguished Fellow Kathi Vian, will share their secrets of the scenario craft and coach you through each step.

They’ll share their insights about how to move beyond the noise of a future-changing event and begin to construct a systematic framework for making sense of uncertainties. And they’ll help you clarify a unique point of view for each of the alternative futures.

Grounding in the pandemic moment

At the same time, you’ll get an in-depth immersion in IFTF’s post-pandemic foresight. You’ll discover how these basic frameworks can help you sort through signals for the future of health, food, education, work, data, and the climate emergency.

In short, the course will help you build your own personal scaffolding to think systematically about complex futures—and to convert your insights into compelling stories that can guide others through the uncertainty.

The course will be offered online in three sessions with three hours per live session. Expect one hour of pre-work before the first session and one hour of work between subsequent sessions, for a total of 12 hours.

You'll learn to

• Frame and develop robust alternative futures scenarios
• Build an action agenda from futures scenarios
• Map potential impacts of the pandemic

The course includes

• Live-online instruction conducted by IFTF researchers
• Immersion in scenario building skills, methodologies, and processes
• Proprietary IFTF toolkit
• Presenter slides
• Certificate of Completion in alternative scenarios
• Networking opportunities with cross-sector attendees

Agenda

SESSION 1 | From Chaos to Order: A Framework for Describing Alternative Possibilities

• Get oriented to four alternative futures
• Learn the building blocks of scenario-based storytelling
  • People & places
  • Timeframes
  • Horizons of change
  • Forces in play
  • Values, choices, and dilemmas

SESSION 2 | From Building Blocks to Narrative Visions: Using Familiar Stories to Connect the Dots

• Discover four basic templates to build your narrative
• Draw insights about the post-pandemic future
• Immerse yourself in four post-pandemic scenarios
  • Positives & negatives
  • Horizon headlines
  • Details of daily life

SESSION 3 | From Story to Action: Bringing the Scenarios to Life

• Learn four basic storyboards to pitch a vision of the future
• Build your post-pandemic confidence
• Apply action maps to convert scenarios to strategy 
  • Action timeframes
  • Hedges against uncertainty
  • Placing bold bets

DATES

MARCH 22-26, 2021
Session 1: Mon, Mar 22 | 9am-12pm PDT | 12-3pm EDT | 4-7pm UTC
Session 2: Wed, Mar 24 | 9am-12pm PDT | 12-3pm EDT | 4-7pm UTC
Session 3: Fri, Mar 26 | 9am-12pm PDT | 12-3pm EDT | 4-7pm UTC

SEPTEMBER 13-17, 2021
Session 1: Mon, Sep 13 | 9am-12pm PDT | 12-3pm EDT | 4-7pm UTC
Session 2: Wed, Sep 15 | 9am-12pm PDT | 12-3pm EDT | 4-7pm UTC
Session 3: Fri, Sep 17 | 9am-12pm PDT | 12-3pm EDT | 4-7pm UTC