http://www.iftf.org/ en_GB IFTF Mon, 20 May 2013 17:26:30 -0400 Mon, 20 May 2013 17:26:30 -0400 TYPO3 EXT:news http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/jake-dunagan-who-is-the-internet-human-and-what-is-the-human-internet-1/ For most of its history, using the Internet has involved conforming and contorting to the logic, architecture, and input/output mechanisms of machine networks. Humans have bent before immobile computer screens, tethered our limbs to mice and keyboards, and craned our necks to see the smartphone screens in our hands. The human experience of the Internet, however, will change dramatically over the next decade. Technical and network foundations are being laid that will allow humans to interface with the network much more naturally and effectively. http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/well-being-and-abundant-data-new-systems-new-roles-and-new-opportunities/ Information flows have the opportunity to transform how we understand and create health and well-being. In the coming decade, the well-being economy will see an ecosystem of information emerge beyond medical records to include data about individual lifestyle choices and the public health of our cities. Our Health Horizons Program’s 2012 Map of the Decade, Information Ecosystem for Well-Being: New Tools, New Connections, New Identities, helps visualize a world beyond big data—where the explosive growth of information can feel overwhelming—to imagine and understand the abundant value emerging from connected health information. The map is a guide to explore how abundant data will create new tools, connections, and identities to improve health and well-being. We will release the map publicly on May 21 at the Healthy Communities Data Summit, which aims to improve the health in local communities through a focus on health data. Bradley Kreit, Health Horizons Program Co-Director, will share highlights from the map. These forecasts explore new innovations such as how high-resolution technologies can make the invisible affects of our environments and routines apparent to health providers, as well as strategies for engaging the crowd in unlocking value from data. We invite you to join us at the Healthy Communities Data Summit on May 21, 2013 at the UCSF Mission Bay Campus. And visit Information Ecosystem for Well-Being: New Tools, New Connections, New Identities to download a PDF copy of the map. http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/keep-the-future-weird-the-age-of-networked-matter/ On May 16-17, our Technology Horizons Program will embark on a journey through three future time horizons— past the present era of Abundant Data, beyond the near future Internet of Things, and into the Age of Networked Matter—at our annual Technology Horizons conference, The Age of Networked Matter. Over the next decade, a confluence of breakthroughs will give us new lenses to observe the wondrous interconnections surrounding us and within us. The coming Age of Networked Matter is a world where everyday objects will blog, robots will have social networks, microbes will talk to kitchens, and forests will “friend” cities. We will look at the emerging technologies in computation, sensing and actuation, wireless, materials science, and even biology that will underpin this coming world, and interact with creators as they reimagine and reinvent the changing context and meaning of our lives. http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/the-cavallo-maneuver-gets-a-jump-on-the-second-curve/ On April 11-12, IFTF’s Ten-Year Forecast program hosted the Cavallo Maneuver—an experiment in alternate reality games and augmented reality spaces. For the 150 strategic leaders from corporations, nonprofits, government agencies and entrepreneurial startups who gathered at Cavallo Point in Sausalito, CA, the maneuver was an opportunity to remap the world by jumping through five timestreams between now and 2023—and then to return to the present with insights stolen from the future.  The maneuver was designed to help these leaders make the leap from the First Curve—the world of incumbent institutions and processes—to what former IFTF president, Ian Morrison, calls the Second Curve. Over the next decade, new technologies and social inventions will begin to define this Second Curve and the new ways of organizing our economy, our governments, and our daily lives to meet the epic challenges we face as a global society. As part of the maneuver, participants explored 25 video forecasts that started with trailheads all over the world. They crafted First Curve strategies that could succeed on the Second Curve and then took a deep dive into genuine Second Curve strategies. As they jumped five timestreams, they plotted the path from today’s organizations to emerging platforms and ultimately to global movements to respond to everything from climate change to a billion new women workers in the next decade alone.  They also explored five future destinations: Work: the rerouting of our productive labors into homes, co-working spaces, DIY manufacturing shops and even our café culturesWealth: the rise of new ways of building wealth, from IP-free zones to new kinds of investorsMind & Body: the strategies we’ll use to adapt to both physical and digital environments that test our health and securityPlanet: the transformation of physical environment at all scales from climate change to the “matterstream”Power: the dynamics of world where guns can be printed and information can target our nervous systems  A Field Guide to the Cavallo Maneuver used the augmented reality tool Layar to uncover video forecasts at each of these destinations and to unearth strategies for moving from organizations to platforms to movements. Participants designed their own movements and captured the designs in aspirations videos. Along the way, they shared lessons with nine Next-Gens: personas of young people from around the world, aged 17-24, who were identified as “tipping point” individuals. They also pursued secret missions to “do it without” money, employees, intellectual property, managers, and even organizations. For more information about the Cavallo Maneuver and IFTF's Ten-Year Forecast program, please contact Sean Ness (sness@iftf.org). http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/gov-futures-lab-hosts-reconcon/ From fiscal cliffhangers and precarious political unions to regulatory capture and endemic corruption, it’s difficult to find almost anyone these days that thinks our governance systems are in good shape. On April 26-27, the Governance Futures Lab at the Institute for the Future (IFTF) hosted social inventors from around the world to tackle some very thorny issues and begin to reinvent the practice of governance for the 21st century. The ReConstitutional Convention was held simultaneously at IFTF headquarters in Palo Alto and at ten global nodes in countries including Singapore, Myanmar and the UK. The gathering of world-class activists, scholars, government officials and futures thinkers systematically reconsidered the underlying frameworks of governance: How should resources be managed? Who has a voice? How do people make decisions together to secure their individual and collective well-being? The event brought together a star-studded cast of leading experts in social and political change, including Alissa Black, Jane McGonigal, Chris McKay, Samidh Chakrabarti, Gabriella Gomez-Mont, Sanford Levinson, Micah Sifry, Stephen Duncombe, David Sasaki, James Fishkin, James Dator, and many others.  Using IFTF’s design toolkit for reinventing governance, they investigated the core challenges that lead many to believe today’s government institutions are failing. They then worked in teams to rethink the foundational frameworks for new governance systems, create new designs for governance, and prototype ways to make governance work. The results of the event will be shared over the coming weeks on the ReConstitutional Convention website. An example of a prototype is App4Gov, a project of the Governance Futures Lab.  It’s a prototype of a free and open-source tool that allows elected officials to systematically delegate decision-making to constituents through a suite of online participatory democracy tools:   App4Gov Registration Process Users register online and receive a postcard at their address. How It WorksApp4Gov users vote regularly on all sorts off issues through direct communications with their elected representatives. Users can delegate their votes to organizations or individuals. http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/io9-one-of-the-first-religions-inspired-by-the-internet/ I had a fun correspondence with new friend and neighbor, Annalee Newitz, about Kopimism, my favorite new religion. My pontifications made it into into a post on io9: We Come from the Future. Love it! Thanks to Nic Weidinger for turning me on to Kopimism in the first place… Quoted from One of the first religions inspired by the internet: It makes perfect sense that the Kopimist symbol lurks in hackerspaces. The faith grows out of Free Culture activism, or copyright reform movements that favor a loosening of intellectual property laws to foster greater freedom of expression. David Evan Harris, a social movements expert with the Institute for the Future, has followed the religion since its inception. He told io9 via email: In Sweden and elsewhere, Kopimism and the Free Culture movement are tied closely to the Pirate Party—which was itself borne out of Swedes being appalled by the US MPAA efforts to force a raid on the headquarters of the Pirate Bay file sharing website. Kopimism founder Gerson and many other members of the Kopimist Church are strongly in favor of changing laws that prevent file-sharing of copyrighted works. Indeed, Gerson has said that he wants most copyright laws to be eliminated. But is Kopimism a true religion, or more of a stunt along the lines of a humorous political party? Perhaps it’s a little bit of both. Harris elaborated: Now, obviously, there’s a lot of tongue-in-cheek humor going on too. Given that Sweden is one of the most atheist-leaningcountries in the world, one can only assume that most Swedish Kopimists are not jumping from being bible-thumping Christians straight to Kopimism. By establishing both a political party (with two seats in the European Parliament!) and a religion to buttress the broader Free Culture Movement, these activists are deftly managing to inscribe their movement and beliefs in core social institutions, affording themselves broader visibility, legitimacy and important legal rights. One of the most fascinating parts for me will be seeing how freedom of religion laws in Sweden and other countries (Idaho now has an official Kopimist Church too) may be used to protect file-sharers in legal proceedings where Kopimist file sharers are being prosecuted… or should I say persecuted? Now that Kopimism has been recognized as an official religion in Sweden, is it possible that somebody could use religious freedom as a defense when the RIAA sues them for torrenting Metallica albums? It’s not likely, given that there are a number of religious practices — such as bigamy and smoking pot — that are still forbidden under US law. http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/tedmedlive-2013-making-the-future-of-health/ TEDMED 2013 reached an unprecedented audience of over 200,000 people with live simulcasts in 2,700 locations in 81 countries. On April 17, Institute for the Future and the American Heart Association co-hosted one of these nodes at our Palo Alto office, where a group gathered to, in the words of TEDMED curator Jay Walker, “use inquiry, science, faith and imagination to become more healthy as individuals, as families and as societies.” TEDMED is an annual 3 ½ day gathering that brings together “multi-disciplinary community of innovators and leaders who share a common determination to create a better future in health and medicine.” TEDMED 2013 reached an unprecedented audience of over 200,000 people with live simulcasts in 2,700 locations in 81 countries. On April 17, Institute for the Future and the American Heart Association co-hosted one of these nodes at our Palo Alto office, where a group gathered to, in the words of TEDMED curator Jay Walker, “use inquiry, science, faith and imagination to become more healthy as individuals, as families and as societies.”  While videos of these new 2013 TEDMED talks are not available online yet, (they will be released throughout the year), we at Health Horizons wanted to share just a few of the most exciting things we heard from people making the future of health and medicine. Tuesday night’s opening session was on “Seeing with a Broader Lens” and brought together a diverse group of multidisciplinary speakers to stretch the imagination, challenge the existing paradigms, and solve health care’s hardest problems. The session drew insights from the worlds of music, art, design, neuroscience, computer science, and community health with a resounding call to be more ambitious in our pursuits and more imaginative in our questions. In the words of Rafael Yuste, who helped spark the Brain Mapping Initiative, “science cannot afford to dream small dreams.”  This message is strongly aligned with the goals of IFTF’s Health Horizon’s program, where we believe that no single institution can solve the complex challenges facing the world today. As we look to the future of health and well-being, some of the most interesting innovations come from the cross-pollination of disparate fields.   Performing artist Kishi Bashi opened this first session with his “violin-techno-pop” and reflected on his inspiration, the Japanese saying “ichi-go ichi-e,” which means “each moment is unique.” Jay Walker invited the audience to, in this way, “be present” throughout the next few days and open to being inspired by new ideas. Next up was John Maeda, Rhode Island School of Design President, who suggested, “being a leader isn’t about going up the mountain, it’s about jumping off the mountain.” He then discussed the ubiquitous need for design as a way to make meaning, and how the “broader lens” of art and design can help the world of health truly thrive. Danny Hillis, inventor of parallel computing and former Disney Imagineer, discussed a new “golden age of medicine” beyond prevention, where we have the tools to look inside the body and preemptively catch abnormalities before they turn into disease. “A person cannot be neutral,” said America Bracho, CEO and president of Latino Health Access, in her impassioned talk on embracing a new narrative for community health. “Neutrality is a chemical concept” and unlike pieces of litmus paper, humans cannot be wholly neutral to any situation. She continued that, “awareness increases in the presence of contradiction,” and the reality of health disparities won’t let you forget – and therefor makes it impossible to stay neutral. Her vision of community health moves away from two distinct groups – one with talents and one with needs – and toward one where better health is achieved for all by “engaging with people through what is good about people.” Her call to “recruit the heart and train the brain” resonated strongly for American Heart Association attendees, who work everyday to literally “pull the heart” and create healthier communities. The session ended with Regina Benjamin, Surgeon General of the United States, talking about how to put the joy back into being healthy, which will happen when people get up and get moving and changes occur at a cellular level. Thanks to the ubiquitous sensors and tracking devices (every TEDMED delegate in DC received a fitbit) we are able to see just how sedentary we are – the “smoking of our generation.” With her prompting, the IFTF group took a pause to go outside and walk around. Session 2 was on “How Can Big Data Become Real Wisdom?” IFTF Advisory Council member, Larry Smarr, now famous for his extreme self-quantification and stool-sampling habits, came on stage holding a 3D model of his colon and proclaimed, “now that’s power.” He shared his own health successes that came from tracking his microbiome and looks to a future where it will be simple for everyone to do the same, with tools to accurately interpret the vast amounts of data we each store inside. Deborah Estrin is looking to “small data” derived from our individual digital traces. She invited those interested in getting their personal digital data back from service providers to register at smalldata.tech.cornell.edu. Elizabeth Marincola, President, Society for Science and the Public, discussed the scientific publishing debate. She said, “when the best research gets converted into a privately controlled, limited access commodity we are in danger of losing sight of our purpose.” A self proclaimed “capitalist by conviction” she said she is ready for open access publishing to compete in the free market and “may the best model win.” She is certain that the free flow of information will mean the faster advance of science, and it doesn’t mean forfeiting profit. Max Little, spoke on the “unreasonable effectiveness of math” and his work combining contemporary machine learning algorithms to make diagnostic predictions. With a mathematic, panoptic view across all disciplines he sees how everything is connected and suggested “the new way to ask big questions in science.” Finally, Amy Abernethy, former NASA programmer and palliative care oncologist, related a story of frustration over inability to access patient data. She proposed “data drives,” modeled after blood drives, where individuals could donate their data with the confidence others will do the same, and that it will be there when needed most. Even better, “Data is a non-depletable resource. Blood and money go away. But data doesn’t go away… and the more we make use of it the more valuable it becomes.” IFTF was honored to join TEDMED from afar, and to extend the opportunity for others in our community to do the same. We thank the American Heart Association for their partnership in making the event happen. These speakers will continue to provoke and inspire us as we work to imagine and make a healthier future. For live updates and more detailed summaries of the talks, visit the TEDMED Blog. To watch talks from previous years, visit tedmed.com/videos. http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/hi-keek-kids-social-media-and-video-futures/ If you're interested in how young people live, what they're doing with their mobiles, and evolving social conventions around video communication, sign up for a Keek account, now, and spend five minutes a day for the next week randomly clicking on the latest Keeks. You won't regret it (but you may find yourself spending more than five minutes). If you're interested in how young people live, what they're doing with their mobiles, and evolving social conventions around video communication, sign up for a Keek account, now, and spend five minutes a day for the next week randomly clicking on the latest Keeks. You won't regret it (but you may find yourself spending more than five minutes). What you'll find: Under-10s, teens, and college students, at home in their rooms, hanging out with their friends, in the car, in the classroom (a LOT of these are being shot at school), and everywhere in between. Putting on make-up, singing, dancing, being bored, doing challenges (eat a spoonful of cinnamon, eat a spoonful of salt), talking about their social media, asking for follows, likes, comments, subscribers, and dares. From all over the US, the Caribbean, Canada, the UK, Australia and New Zealand, Europe (check at different times of day for Keeks from different parts of the world).  Keeks are up-to-36-second video snippets ("microvideos") recorded on a webcam or phone, mostly with no editing, and are the latest thing to be added to the long and ever-changing list of ways young people socialize and play with one other. We've seen the shift from text-based status updates to photo updates over the past few years, especially for younger kids. Now we're seeing video updates added to the mix. Of course the whole Kardashian family is there, and enough other celebrities are joining that the company just introduced verified accounts in late March.  Couple of initial thoughts:  The list of possible social channels is impressive, as this photo from a Keek by a pair of 10 year old American girls attests (Keek me, Snapchat me, Kik me, Facetime me, text me, email me, call me, follow me, Instagram me, chat with me, Talkatone me)! Will using this many channels be a practice that sticks with these kids as they grow older, and their time becomes more scheduled? Will we see them consolidating into just a few services? Or will they be comfortable having this many different engagement modes and just moving from one to the next? Duck face (also known as "MySpace face" according to KnowYourMeme!), kissing goodbye sign-offs, v-signs/peace signs, and sideways-sticking-out tongues are the lingua franca. Duck face is ubiquitous on Instagram but seems slightly less common in videos. [Note: compare with the aesthetic conventions of video back in 2008 described in our Future of Video report!] "Hi Keek," "Bye Keek": many of the videos open with "Hey Keek!", which feels different than YouTube. I don't recall YouTube being thought of as an agent that people say hello and goodbye to. Keekers seem to be talking to a combination of their followers, their potential anonymous viewers, and Keek itself. We explored the question of audience to some extent in our 2009 Blended Reality report. The company is headquartered in Toronto and has been gathering steam since late 2011. Their press releases say they're adding 200,000 users every day and are experiencing explosive growth in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and South America, serving 83 million pages a day.  http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/social-inventors-wanted/ We need a new generation of Social Inventors to meet the challenge of governance in the Anthropocene Epoch. We need YOU! Follow us on twitter: @govfutureslab #ReConCon Like us on Facebook Update: The future governance system prototypes have been unveiled, and can be viewed at reconcon.govfutures.org. The Governance Futures Lab's ReConstitutional Convention is an experiment in re-thinking and re-making our systems of governance for an age of civilizational- and planetary-level challenges. And we need a new generation of Social Inventors to meet the challenge of governance in the Anthropocene Epoch. We need YOU! Join us on Saturday, April 27 in Palo Alto for a governance design workshop. Bring your skills (whether as an artist, scholar, engineer, entrepreneur, performer, coder, creative, etc) and put them together with other social inventors here, and in 10 global nodes around the world. Simultaneously, in locations ranging from Burma to Birmingham, other social inventors will be taking design briefs and creating new systems, visions, or representations of new ways to govern people and the planet(s).  http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/the-coming-age-of-networked-matter-1/ Today, we live in a highly networked world. An astounding array of everyday objects—from food to furniture, buildings to bodies, cars to cities—are becoming connected and interconnected across scales. But imagine moving beyond even the most grandiose visions of an "Internet of Things” toward a tapestry of networked matter: systems of networks that communicate seamlessly, from connected microbes inside our bodies to an internet that stretches across planets.