Institute For The Future

To help Technology Horizons Program members understand the long-term potential RFID, the Institute for the Future (IFTF) has undertaken a project to map the future of RFID beyond the supply chain. Even though companies are struggling with the Wal-Mart and Tesco mandates to add RFID tags to pallets and cases of goods, it’s not too early to begin thinking about how the technology could be used outside the supply chain. Our findings are presented in a series of five memos.

The memos are as follow:

• Thinking About RFID [SR-926A] In the last year, RFID (radio frequency identifi cation tags) have emerged as a promising and controversial technology in the worlds of commerce, health, and security. RFID tags are touted as the next stage in the evolution of supply chains and inventory management; as a replacement for optical identification technologies in packaging and passports; and as a tool for improving shopping experiences and consumer satisfaction. They are also decried as Orwellian tools for increasing surveillance of shoppers, and reducing the privacy of citizens.

• Public Concerns and the Near Future of RFID [SR-926B] What really worries people about RFID? This memo explores this question. Public worries about RFID fall into three areas: loss of privacy, loss of control, and the invisibility of the technology. This memo probes each of those concerns, and their sources.

• Flashpoints and Controversies [SR-926C] The use of RFID technology in security and health applications will raise few problems, as they'll represent layers atop existing monitoring systems, or uses in context where people already expect to give up a measure of privacy. However, other application areas hold the potential to generate controversy about RFID, or opposition to its further deployment.

• Smart Homes and Social Devices [SR-926D] Assuming RFID does not stumble because of security- or privacy-related problems, people will begin to use RFID in their homes within the next two years. Many may first notice RFID tags in security and health applications. People will also begin to experiment with personalized applications. RFID will become a component in home-management systems, which will help to schedule shopping, laundry, and other tasks. Ultimately, RFID will be one of the technologies that bring pervasive computing from the computer laboratory into the home.

• RFID: Implications and Recommendations [SR-926E] In the next decade, RFID will move from the supply chain into the world at large. In the near term—that is, over the next three to five years—the cost of tags and readers will fall enough to allow the technology to move onto products, clothes, and packaging. As it diffuses, RFID will appear in an ever-widening variety of social and use contexts. RFID will begin to be an element in hospital, airport, and store security; a tool to identify and recover stolen merchandise; and an instrument of contact-less commerce.

[SR-926]

May 2005

• SR-926A_Thinking_RFID.pdf

  Thinking RFID [SR-926A]

• SR-926B_RFID_Public_Concerns.pdf

  RFID Public Concerns [SR-926B]

• SR-926C_RFID_Flashpoints.pdf

  RFID Flashpoints [SR-926C]

• SR-926D_RFID_SmartHomes_SociableDevices.pdf

• SR-926E_RFID_Implications.pdf