Over the next decade we will find ourselves living in a world in which everything is programmable—an environment permeated with vast amounts of data, analytics, algorithms, code of all kinds, and automated actions. In this world social networks, organizations, and even the human body will be customized to desired specifications. Machines will be programmed as extensions of our minds; work processes and office spaces designed to optimize efficiency; tools like nanotechnology, advanced simulations, and reconfigurable robots will reprogram matter and possibly even repair our ailing planet. 

In 2010, our research will focus on the human and environmental scale implications of this increasingly complex, high-resolution system. 

The Future of Persuasion

“Never before has the ability to automate persuasion been in the hands of so many.”- B.J. Fogg, director of the Stanford University Persuasive Technology Lab.  

B.J. Fogg’s pioneering work on persuasive technologies has described the use of computers and software to trigger active behavior change. This task will forecast the evolution of persuasion as it becomes transformed by mobile supercomputing for the masses, augmented reality (AR) overlays, connected collective groups, and real-time data tools over the next decade. What will be the new toolkit for designing persuasive experiences in the work, the home, or the retail environment? How can design interventions be used to make a better future? How can new programming and visualization tools enable us to engineer our behaviors for peace, health, and sustainability?  

The research report and conference will forecast how new persuasive techniques will shape engagement and action in five key domains: management in the workplace, learning, political action, personal health, and advertising.  

In addition, you will have access to a first-of-its-kind platform documenting successful design interventions across a range of domains, from advertising to architecture. Our online site, Designs for Changing the Future, will collect and analyze global examples of design interventions that create behavior change and as a result, reconfigure the future. We’re interested in tools and experiences that change the way we do basic things like drive, eat, or make a phone call, and that reorient us toward a better future for the planet and ourselves. The website will provide the basis for understanding “what are we learning?” and “what are the impacts?”
 

Designing the Next Brain

This task will describe the tools, technologies, and businesses that will define the field of neuroscience and technology in the coming decade. These innovations are increasing our ability to modify behavior, treat disorders, interface with machines, integrate intelligent prosthetics, build more intelligent artificial intelligence, and illuminate the mysteries of consciousness.  

Automated for the People

After years of speculation, robots that serve a broad array of functions are emerging from laboratories and factories to invade our houses and organizations. Advances in machine learning will transform both mobile and fixed autonomous systems into a dynamic and flexible fabric for efficiency, capacity, safety, convenience, and functionality. Meanwhile, autonomous mega-scale infrastructures for energy, information, transportation, and waste will provide new frameworks for configuring societies. In this research task, we'll create a map of automation and robotics, from mega- to nano-scale, and describe how automation will dramatically alter society, industry, and everyday life.  

Regional Open Meetings: Community & Implications

Building on our 2009 Everything is Programmable, Future of Video, andLightweight Innovation research, we will engage large groups of people to expand the range of perspectives that inform our forecasts and the implications we draw from them. During the spring and summer of 2010, we will host a series of regional gatherings that will tap into the collective intelligence of a range of experts and stakeholders in technology. Using an open meeting format, we will ask our participants to work with our forecasts and identify strategic implications for stakeholders. These meetings, which will take place in locations such as Washington, D.C., Chicago, New York, and Silicon Valley, will provide Technology Horizons members with new opportunities to work with IFTF forecasts and interact with IFTF researchers and networks.

2010 Deliverables

Humans in a Designed World

Future of Persuasion Repor
t: How new persuasive techniques will be used to shape engagement and action for management, learning, politics, advertising, and health.

Designs for Changing the Future website: Global examples of design interventions that create behavior change and, as a result, reconfigure the future challenges and pathways toward transformation.

Designing the Next Brain Report: The tools, technologies, and businesses that will define the field of neuroscience and technology in the coming decade.

Automated for the People Map: A ten-year forecast of automation and robotics, from the mega- to the nano-scale.

For more information on the Technology Horizons Program please contact Sean Ness at sness@iftf.org