IFTF + You
For nearly four decades, the Ten-Year Forecast program has been a leading source of foresight for a vanguard of business, government, and nonprofit organizations. It is a platform for sensing today’s latent signals, tracking their intersections to understand the ecosystem of choices, and then designing platforms for future resilience.
The 2014 Ten-Year Forecast finds the world in an era of rapid evolution at the scale of entire ecosystems. We now know that species can evolve in a matter of generations, often "pretesting" apparently dysfunctional adaptations–only to discover that future conditions demand just this adaptation. This is what complexity theorist Stuart Kaufman calls the "inventive search for new hypotheses." Every project we undertake is a hypothesis about the future.
Our 2014 program will target such landmark hypotheses. Specifically, we will seek to describe ten possible projects that, if they succeed, could change paradigms in the next decade and beyond.
Ten Projects, Ten Hypotheses
The 10YF team formulated 10 landscape-changing hypotheses about the evolution of diverse human ecosystems over the next decade. For each of these hypotheses, we:
Mapped the defining projects that could serve as paradigm-shifting pre-adaptationsGathered the signals that suggest these projects are already underway in some formIdentified the practical visionaries who are already at work in each ecosystemCaptured the essence of the paradigm shift that will occur within the decadeDescribed the specific impacts of that paradigm shift on today’s individuals, households, communities, industries, and global diasporas
The result is 10 print portfolios of change, accompanied by video visualizations for each.
2014 Map of the Decade
Each year, the 10YF program produces a map of the decade: a framework for visualizing the interplay of trends, signals, and emerging transformations. In 2014 the map has been reinvented as an innovative design tool to visualize systems and design them to amplify and interconnect strategies, stories, and signals that will help us, as humans, make sense of the next decade and, indeed, the coming century.
10YF Annual Retreat
The 2014 annual retreat was held May 1–2, 2014 in the San Francisco Bay area. It brought the ten transformational hypotheses to life with videos, practical visionaries who are already at work on pieces of the world-changing projects, and personal narratives of impacts of those projects. It will increased our capacity to lead an inventive search for new hypotheses with practical tools for integrating those hypotheses into the present.
The Ten-Year Forecast program is an ongoing research effort. Membership for each year includes attendance at the TYF Annual Retreat, three print copies of the annual Ten-Year Forecast research and annual Map of the Decade, as well as electronic access to the Ten-Year Forecast member-only website. This member-only website contains presentations, processes, tools, and other materials that are never shared publicly.