IFTF + You
We face a decade of the impossible. We stand eye-to-eye with challenges that seem unimaginable even as we face them. Global warming. Human population collapse. Widespread economic failure. We respond with untested solutions on scales we have never before attempted: molecular-scale manufacturing, massive data tracking and analysis, reengineering of the human mind and body.
Each of these responses is a hypothesis about the future, and in this era of impossible challenges and unprecedented experiments, the 2014 Ten-Year Forecast embarks on an “inventive search for new hypotheses.”
2014 Research Agenda
The 2014 Ten-Year Forecast finds the world in an era of rapid evolution at the scale of entire ecosystems. We now know that species can evolve in a matter of generations, often "pretesting" apparently dysfunctional adaptations–only to discover that future conditions demand just this adaptation. This is what complexity theorist Stuart Kaufman calls the "inventive search for new hypotheses." Every project we undertake is a hypothesis about the future.
Our 2014 program will target such landmark hypotheses. Specifically, we will seek to describe ten possible projects that, if they succeed, could change paradigms in the next decade and beyond.
Ten Projects, Ten Hypotheses
The 10YF team will formulate 10 landscape-changing hypotheses about the evolution of diverse human ecosystems over the next decade. For each of these hypotheses, we will:
- Map the defining projects that could serve as paradigm-shifting pre-adaptations
- Gather the signals that suggest these projects are already underway in some form
- Identify the practical visionaries who are already at work in each ecosystem
- Capture the essence of the paradigm shift that will occur within the decade
- Describe the specific impacts of that paradigm shift on today’s individuals, households, communities, industries, and global diasporas
The result will be 10 print portfolios of change, accompanied by digital visualizations for each.
2014 Map of the Decade
Each year, the 10YF program produces a map of the decade: a framework for visualizing the interplay of trends, signals, and emerging transformations. This year, the map will be reinvented as an innovative design tool to visualize systems and design them to amplify and interconnect strategies, stories, and signals that will help us, as humans, make sense of the next decade and, indeed, the coming century. This design tool will be offered in both print and web formats.
10YF Annual Retreat
The annual retreat will be held May 1–2, 2014 in the San Francisco Bay area. It will bring the ten transformational hypotheses to life with videos, practical visionaries who are already at work on pieces of the world-changing projects, and personal narratives of impacts of those projects. It will tune up our capacity to lead an inventive search for new hypotheses, with practical tools for integrating those hypotheses into the present.
The Ten-Year Forecast program is an ongoing research effort. Membership for 2014 includes attendance at the 2014 TYF Annual Retreat and three print copies of the 2014 Ten-Year Forecast and 2014 Map of the Decade, as well as electronic access to the Ten-Year Forecast member-only website.